RBI on Hold
By Yee Lan•8/2/2025
Key Points
We expect RBI to remain on hold after the front-loaded rate cuts in June. We expect China exports growth to edge lower to 5%; CPI and PPI to remain soft. We expect Indonesia's 2Q GDP to slow to 4.8%Y, with Philippines GDP holding up at 5.5%.
China
CPI: Edged down to 0%Y on lower food & fuel prices. Core CPI stable at 0.7%.
PPI: Edged up to -3.5%Y from modestly higher commodity prices amid production cuts.
Export: Slowed to 5%Y on slower exports to US, stable container throughput.
Import: Slipped to -0.5%Y on weaker commodity demand, production cuts.
India
RBI meeting: Status quo on rates and stance with RBI on wait & watch mode post front-loaded easing.
Indonesia
2Q25 GDP: GDP growth of 4.8%Y. Challenging outlook amid weak corporate sentiment.
Japan
Monthly Labor Survey: Total cash earnings: +3.3% YoY in June.
Family Income & Expenditure Survey: Real hh consumption expenditure: +2.8% YoY in June.
BOP: Current account surplus: 1680bn yen in June.
Diagrams
