Robots are coming

Humanoids could be a 0.9/134/1,019mn unit and $0.02/1.2/4.7 trillion annual market by 2030/40/50, with each humanoid requiring on average ~0.9kg of NdPr, 2kg of Li, 6.5kg of Cu, 1.4kg of Ni, 180g of Co and 3kg of graphite. This could add cumulative incremental demand of up to US$800bn across covered critical minerals by 2050. As a proportion of 2030 demand for rare earths (specifically NdPr), humanoids could add an additional 40%/110%/167% in 2040/2045/2050. Lithium/cobalt/nickel/graphite/copper could see ~20%/15%/10%/5%/5% additional demand (as a proportion of 2030 demand). By 2050, the annual added demand for critical minerals (covered in this note) could be up to ~US$50-120bn per annum. We estimate that Chinese or Chinese-owned enterprises currently control mined and refined supply to the tune of 65%/88% for rare earths, 27%/73% for lithium, ~70% for nickel, 55%/70% for cobalt and 82%/93% for graphite, which creates an urgent need for supply chain diversification for western producers. The average lead times for new mines continues to rise, which could pose challenges for meeting the rising demand for critical minerals. According to S&P Global (link), the average lead time for mines operational between 2020 and 2024 reached ~17.8 years.